MLB Playoff Handicapping- 10/14 (Part 1)

We have a couple of interesting match ups tonight in both of the Championship Series games for tonight.  Surprisingly enough The Dodgers and The Astros have found themselves in a bit of a hole to start their respective series.  Let’s jump in and look at some of the different betting strategies and angles that we dig up out of the numbers associated with these two games.

Dodgers vs Braves

For the third straight game LA is coming into this one as the favorite.  The difference in this game is that the Dodgers are heavy on the betting tickets and money as they are catching over 60% in both of these areas and has moved the line from -160 up into the -190 range, this will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to first pitch.  Kyle Wright will be on the mound tonight for The Braves where is is coming off his first playoff win against Miami.  Wright went six innings and didn’t give up a run in his last start and is also 4-0 going back to early September.  He has only given up 2 homers with 21 strikeouts in that time frame.

Total 9.5 Runs

The Total on this game is something I’m going to be paying close attention to as this is the highest set total of the series so far, with the line opening at 9 and has moved up to 9.5 across the markets with the public and the sharps both trending on the over with both sitting at 55% right now.  Remember what I said earlier about Wright?  He has been throwing good his last few games but he also has a career era of 6.22, this is also the first time he will face a stacked LA Dodger batting lineup where they might have got their bats back on track last night in a failed rally against Atlanta.  Tonight the LAD team totals are set at 3 runs for the first half and 5.5 for the game.  With Vegas setting the totals so high I wouldn’t expect another gem out of Wright, as he might get hit and might get his early.

Julio Urias for the Dodgers is on the other side of this match up where he has only faced four batters on the current Atlanta roster, he has faced; Freeman, Ozuna, Albies, and Acuna Jr. Where they have a combined zero hits,  2 walks and 2 strikeouts.  Urias is 3-2 in his last five starts where he hasn’t gave up a home run and accumulated 21 strikeouts.  The team totals on Atlanta are 1.5 for the first half and 3.5 for the game with both lines being juiced at -140 or better.  I like Urias to hold his own at least through the fist half of this game.

The umpire for this match up is Cory Blaser who has a 36.4% under percentage with 11 starts behind the plate.  I do, like the Dodgers in this match up, at least through the first half.  I think Wright will get hit and I will take The Dodgers first half on this game and give up the half run.  LAD knows they need to get it kicked in gear and I think they will tonight.

The Play

Los Angeles Dodgers-  Team total over 5.5 runs -105

Los Angeles Dodgers- First half -.5 -140

This is part 1 of a 2 part series where we will feature the late game in Tampa Bay and Houston in the following article.

Stay Tuned

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