Thursday Night Football Big Ticket Amazon Prime 7:15 PM CST*
5 Units (1.25%) Washington Commanders -120
Add on Commanders to win first half -115 / 2.5 Units
Commanders to win HT/FT +190 / 2.5 Units Â
Make no mistake about it I am not happy about our boring match up for a Thursday Night game on Amazon. Each team is required to play in one appearance on Thursday night and lucky for us we do not have to see Washington or the Bears play again this year on a Thursday.Â
At first I was not going to get involved in this game, obviously we missed a good number with the under as that was partially worth grabbing if you got it in early. But I was a bit skeptical because I believe we must start seeing some regression on this Washington offense and the stigma of a prime time under and divisional under being blown way out of proportion in almost every single sports article I could get my hands on. Please be aware that some of those companies also partner with sportsbooks so I often find myself playing the skeptical card.
Wentz just has simply been a big let down and I am about to personally fire him and put him on my do not bet list, but I think its worth giving him one more final shot here in this spot.
Washington has lost 4 straight games since their 6-point home win over the Jags. This game opened with Bears +1 and the line has shifted to a pick em late last night and now at the time of writing this article just 3 hours before kick-off I am now seeing the Commanders at a -1. I would much rather see you play the Washington side still on the money line for a better value play no matter how this line closes.
The Commanders have just been a huge let down for me in two back-to-back big games. However, the Defense really stepped up in their last game but one cannot account for the randomness in sports such as, Wentz throwing an interception at the end of last game. Their 3rd down conversion rate was just horrible to say the least 1-11. But don’t worry the Bears defense is now what, dead last in all professional football?
It is noteworthy to bet against first year head coaches on Thursday night. They are usually weaker in this spot, and with just three day’s rest it isn’t enough time to prepare. The Bears are also 1-8 at home against Washington. The Bears rank 32nd Dead last in the NFL in yards per game. They also rank almost dead last in time of possession and the 3rd down conversion rating is not friendly to them as well. Meanwhile our Commanders are actual good against the run game.
Let’s not over think this one.
We have sharp money hammering the number on the Commanders who are now 1-4 vs the Bears who are 2-3. This Commanders team could easily be 2-3 if it were not for that pick Wentz threw at the end of the last game.
This is going to be a sad despicable game; I honestly may only watch the last couple minutes of the opening drive and maybe the last two minutes we shall see. Wentz is 66% in prime-time spots while our other guy Fields, he is now 0-4 Straight up, and 1-3 ATS on his night appearances.
Give me the better value in this spot and hold your breath and close your eyes because nobody wants to eat what Washington is cooking up right now.
Win or lose please make sure you are placing responsible bets that you can handle with your limitations. I personally recommended this play to my
subscribers to be placed as a max bet, but it is worth noting that my max bets are just a mere 1.25% of your overall bank roll.
Some other notable things to look out for in this game.
Wentz to go over his total on passing yards.
Wentz to have under 0.5 interceptions tonight.
Yes, I know again this is a counter intuitive approach so play at your own risk.
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Thank you
And best of luck to you
Matt Epstein
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