Well…here we are just two games left before the All-Star break and one if them I have been looking forward to for a bit that is Thunder vs Pelicans.
This is an interesting matchup and the first time OKC will be facing Zion, who will end up with the task of guarding this monster that is averaging over 20 points per game? That my friends is the million dollar question, but if you ask the public and the sharps they don’t care because all day the money and the betting tickets have been firmly on the side of NOLA at over 80% on both respectively and the line has moved from 1.5 to 3.5 which says the betting public is giving OKC very little chance to win or cover. Why should they? OKC is coming off a bad loss against San Antonio and lost a nail biter to Boston. NOLA on the other hand is on a 4 game winning streak and looking good, but the old saying is; “what goes up, must come down”.
With a few hours before tipoff there is some action coming back on an almost full strength OKC team who has a strong road ATS record of 20-5 and are also the best covering team in the league. The Pelicans on the other hand are iffy at home with an 11-16 home straight up record but are 15-12 ATS at home. I personally feel like you can throw these records out the window when it comes to a game like this, reason being the betting tickets are inflated verses a typical NBA card.
Right now there are over 6000 tickets and we still have a few hours before tip off. I have been waiting to see if there were going to be any big moves on OKC but nothing in the movement all day has indicated that. I’m going to take a contrarian underdog shot on Thunder and buy the spread up to 4 in order to avoid the hook. I’m also going to take a small shot at the moneyline as well to take advantage of that value. This is what I like to call a perception cap and I will ride with Vegas, let’s just hope we get the same Thunder team we have been watching all year and not the one we have been watching this week.
Best of luck whichever way you go.