I might kick myself for this later but there is just to much value on The Bucks ML even with Korver, Hill, and Giannis out. Milwaukee should be heading into this game as double digit favs but instead The line is hovering in the 1 point range. I’m more interested in sacrificing the point and taking them on the moneyline.
While typing this article the money and ticket percentages have moved away from 50/50 and a steam move has occurred on Pacers moving the money percentage in the 60% range as the public is now moving on The Bucks as demonstrated with the graphic below.
The intriguing thing about this game is how lopsided the straight up and ATS records are for both these squads, you don’t usually see a good team vs bad team with a very low spread. With this being a national televised ESPN game and weak home ATS refs we are guaranteed to see some crazy things happen.
The total has also moved 3.5 points from the opening line and doing what it should be doing since 94% of the spread money is planted directly on the over. I expect a high scoring fast paced game in Indianapolis and team totals and totals will be something to keep an eye on as it gets closer to tip off.
When I started writing this article I liked The Bucks to win this but the steam moves are keeping me in check. I will continue to monitor this movement all the way up til the tip off. If I haven’t made a decision by then, I will look for a 2nd half angle at half time. Those casinos in Vegas weren’t built off winners even though this looks like an easy play on the Bucks there is a reason for that, the oddsmakers know what they are doing and this one is right up their alley.
Best of luck whichever way you go.