On what should be one of most bet on games of the night and also an ESPN feature game, we have a red hot OKC team that is playing their first home/road back to back of the season. After 19 point comeback win last night verses Sacramento, Thunder have failed to cover the spread now two games in a row. They head into Milwaukee as a surprising double digit underdog. The back to back games has a lot to do with this line being set at 10.5 as well as OKC potentially resting Gallinari tonight.
Last night the the opening betting was very heavy on The Bucks with both betting tickets and money being in the 95% range. This money has created a betting signal on the spread with the line moving to 11.5 at the time of this article. Since then the money and betting tickets have came back on OKC with both betting tickets and money now in the 30% range, as demonstrated with the below graphic.
There a couple of things that are intriguing about the way these lines are moving is if we switch over and check the money line percentages or who will win the game straight up. These percentages are almost 50/50, which makes sense on a value bet since OKC does have an outside chance to win this game albeit a very slim one. If you took OKC to win you would win around $550 on a $100 bet. It is a very high risk move but some gamblers make a living off contrarian betting or playing the heavy underdogs.
Next, is the total. Vegas opened this line a 229 but steam moves or heavy betting on one side has pushed it up to almost 231 in some markets. Gallinari and Giannis are going to be factors on where this total ultimately ends up.
The total is already adjusting back down to the original line with more bettors now taking the under of 231. If this game is going to go over or even get near the total OKC will have to play their best ball of the year to keep up against what is arguably the best team in the NBA as they won’t have the fire power to come back if the Bucks open up a big lead.
Keeping on the theme of totals…i love lots of scoring and high percentage offenses. The referee matchup here is a lot of the reason I will be looking for an over play somewhere in this game. All three referees have a sub 40% under hit rate.
I expect a high scoring match up and a high quality ball game that I will be excited to watch. The ability of OKC to cover the spread will be directly tied to their ability to keep up with the totals that the oddsmakers have set for them.
Best of luck whichever way you go.