After the radio show ended this morning I only talked about a few things I wanted to about Super Bowl LIV…so, I will cover that and the rest here.
Like with every other SB I’m capping this spread not to be sharp, reason being is that the oddsmakers only have a fraction of the time to set the line as opposed to the regular season and they need to set it to entice action on both sides and a -1.5/PK type line does exactly that. We are already seeing this set up with 34.5k betting tickets and the money and tickets both hovering in the upper 50% ranges on the home team.
If you are taking KC I would suggest to dump the points and run them on the money line, seeing as the average head to head bet on SF is $278 vs. $74 on KC, respectively. This makes sense when you see that San Fran is pulling 75% of the money at $8.2m compared to 25% and $2.4m on KC. This is a classic “draw a line in the sand” sharp vs. public matchup.
The most value will come out of the totals and that is where I will circle to find a play. Everyone is heavy on the over and it is indicated in the line move from 51.5 to 54.5 with public and sharp both hitting at over 80%. Public expects points and after last year’s SB I don’t blame them.
I Realize that SF defense is now a full strength as opposed to when they limped into the playoff. SF game plan obviously will be clock management but in order to do that, they will need a sustained running game out of their backs that are averaging a staggering 235.5 rushing yards in the playoffs. So, this circles you back to the KC rushing D that was the 29th overall rank in the NFL but grinded out Henry and the Titans which made them one dimensional. For KC to be successful they will have to do the same thing to the SF backs and force Jimmy G to throw the ball.
I’m projecting this game to have around 150k betting tickets on it, which will make it one of the most bet on games of all time. I will continue to monitor this game throughout the week and like to have all the data and information at my disposal before I make an educated decision. Stay tuned for more write-ups and thanks for reading.