Ravens @ Colts

NFL Week 9 Preview- Ravens @ Colts
By Jack Robinson

We kick off Saturday with an AFC match up between two top tier teams battling it out for spots at the top of their respective divisions.  The Ravens are coming into this one off an upset home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Baltimore this season is 0-1 against the spread coming off a loss.
PicksCity jackson
Last week The Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson had a lack luster day against the second ranked overall defense in the league by going 13/28 in passing, two interceptions, two fumbles lost, and finished the game with a 65.8 quarterback rating.  He will need to get it figured out this week against the third ranked defense in the Indianapolis Colts.
PicksCity Screenshot 2020 11 07 2020 NFL DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS Football Outsiders
This year The Colts are holding opposing offenses to 256.75 yards per game and only allowing 17 points per game.  The ball hawking Indy defense will need to keep it up this week if they are to pull off the the home underdog win against Jackson and company.  All of these stats look really good on paper but the best offense they have faced this year was last week against Detroit who is ranked 16th overall where they gave up 21 points.  Baltimore comes into this game with the second best offense in the league and average right at 26 points per game.
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This line originally opened at -3 for the road team but has been steadily moving in reverse all week.  As of the writing of this article there are around 2800 betting tickets on the game.  This is not a feature game or a prime time game which makes the reverse line movement play a bigger factor in how this line has been moving.  The public bettors are firmly on the side of Baltimore as they are catching 66% of the bets and are pulling 71% of the money via the spread percentages.
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What is more interesting here is that Baltimore opened as a -155 favorite on the money line or who will win outright.  Right now The Ravens are over 90% in the money line percentages which is never a good sign when Vegas is involved.  With that being said The Ravens are a -120 favorite on the money line with heavy reverse action to suck in bettors on a discounted line.

Lamar Jackson has a career record of 28-12 including the playoffs and has only lost 5 games on the road in the regular season.  This will be the first time he travels to Lucas Oil Field to face off against The Colts.  I expect this game to fall right into the odds maker lines and make for an exciting match up between two teams that have Super Bowl aspirations.

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The Ravens have been very good at covering team totals all year and I don’t expect this game to be any different because with a game total set at around 48 points this will be the lowest team totals all year for The Ravens.  Their first quarter is coming in at 3.5 and the first half is set at 12.5.  This one will hinge on The Indy defense being able to contain the high powered offense from Baltimore and Phillip Rivers being able to play mistake free football for four quarters.  I’m going to be honest, I like the home dog in this one and I will take the value and back Indianapolis on the money line.  Best of Luck whichever way you go.
The Play

Indianapolis Colts ML Even

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