We are heading into the home stretch of the season and it looks like we got a good one brewing in Salt Lake City between two…what on paper look like very similar teams. Toronto blasted Utah at Scotiabank Arena by 20 points on what was a 2 point Vegas line. Will the revenge factor come into play tonight?
The Raps are in the last game of a 5 game road stretch with the game tonight being a back to back. The Raptors are 3-1 straight up during this road trip but are 1-2-1 against the spread. This year Toronto is a respectable 4-5 against the spread when playing games with no rest along with a very good road record of 21-9 straight up and a marginal 15-15 ATS record.
The oddsmakers have set this line up on Toronto as a 4 point underdog and during the course of the day sharp money has been hammering away on Utah, as they have captured 80% of the money with only 48% of the betting tickets moving the line to 4.5. Now keep in mind that Toronto is still almost a .500 road team as the underdog coming in with a 8-9 road ATS record.
Utah this year on the other hand is 12-15-2 or 44.4% this year as a home favorite. The Jazz are hot right now just coming off an East Coast road sweep but going 2-2-1 against the spread in the process. Both of these teams are running almost identical numbers in their last 10 games with Utah 6-4 straight up and Raptors with the same record. The difference is Toronto is one game better against the spread in that stretch.
This total opened at 223 and oddly steamed up to 225 on only 140 betting tickets. Since then it has adjusted back down to 224 but fluctuating across the markets as low as 223.5 and as high as 225.5 in some markets. Right now the betting tickets and the money are almost identical at 50/50. I think this is where the sharp action will originate from considering all three of these officials are around 50% on their over/under records for the year. A game like this is a good spot to find a prop or total bet, because if a sharp game is being handicapped then you can find value on the lines within the game line or maybe even a live in game bet.
There is only an 85 point difference in the ELO Rating or method of calculating skill level between teams. Raptors with a 1669 rating and Jazz with a 1584 rating. Just like it looks on paper, I expect this game to be close on the court as well and hover all over where Vegas has set the lines.
Best of Luck whichever way you go. #WMF
(Credit: Teddy Clarke of the Fade Famila Facebook group for providing Toronto statistics)