NFL WEEK 3 SPOTLIGHT (PART 2)
By Jack Robinson
(Disclaimer: Read Part one here before continuing https://pickscity.com/nfl-week-3-spotlight-part-one/)
In part one of this series we explained what feature games are and why they were important not only for Vegas but for the public that bets on these games as well. I broke down what I saw in the numbers for the Thursday night game as well as the perceptions that come along with handicapping a game in a sport (football) where everyone seems to be an expert.
Anyone can pick a winner, but can you find different angles within the game in order to find the best valued bets? What I mean by this is that every game has it’s own genetic code that us as sports handicappers we have to decipher in order to find the best path to get win.
In the Thursday night game based on the spread and the total, combined with the way the money and the betting tickets were moving I was able to figure out that this game was most likely going under and if Houston was going to cover something their best shot was going to be in the 1st half where they were getting 4.5 points and 99% of the first half money was on the other side with Carolina.
In this article we will get into the Sunday Night Football game where Green Bay travels to the West Coast to face their long time rival San Fransisco. We will break down some numbers and stats as well as see if we can read between the lines and find us a good angle to bet on this game using a few of the 12 pregame bets or a few of the many player prop bets that come along with a game like this.
Green Bay is coming off a big time win at Lambeau against Detroit. You may be asking yourself “why is this a big time win”? Well to answer that question we have to look at the week before where Rodgers and The Packers got blown out in New Orleans and were limping into their home opener with a lot of questions surrounding both the offense and the defense. They were also tagged with an 11.5 point handicap by Vegas and the odd makers, all these points propelled the the betting public to lay their money heavily on the road dog.
Everything was looking on track through the first half where the Green Bay defense still looked dicey in surrendering 17 points to Goff and the Detroit offense. Things changed in the 2nd half and Green Bay finally woke up and scored 21 unanswered points to not only win the game but also cover the big double digit spread that was hung by their name.
San Fransisco on the other hand started off the season hot in a big win verses coincidentally the Detroit Lions, but they also lost their starting running back Raheem Mostert to a possible season ending injury very early on in that contest. The offense seems to run through the arm of Jimmy G and his favorite targets in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.
Those are two names that you need to circle if you are looking to do any DFS or Daily Fantasy Sports like Draftkings or Fanduel. Also, if you are looking to do any player prop betting on this game Kittle and Samuel are both going to get plenty of looks in this contest.
(Courtesy of The Action Network)
As of right now a lot of the action has been on The Packers both from the public and sharp betting perspectives. The spread opened at 2.5 and quickly moved to 3 and 3.5 across the markets. Why? This is saying is that Vegas wants you to bet on Green Bay as the road underdog and I don’t necessarily disagree with this bet because I think Green Bay can cover it.
What I do disagree with is that these same bettors are also betting on Green Bay to win this game outright where The Packers are at +154 on the money line. What that means if you are a $100 bettor you would win $154 and right now 67% of the bets and 87% of the money is on this bet…that’s bad.
(Pinnacle Sportsbook Timeline)
What is more interesting is the total on this game where it opened at 45.5 but has ballooned up to 50.5 across the markets and this is all with the public hammering on the overs to drive the total up to where it is now. The real issue is where the money is at. The under has only 37% of the betting tickets but they have 85% of the money. This means that the big money and smart bets are being placed firmly on the under…and I agree with them.
I like this game to stay under 50.5, I also like Green Bay to cover the spread, and I like SF to win this game. I’m capping a 3 point game to stay under 51 points in some capacity. Green Bay team total is 23.5 and SF team total is 27 points. Like I said before these feature games tend to stay around the Vegas numbers either the spread or the total or maybe both will be sharp on the numbers.
This concludes part 2 of NFL Spotlight. Tomorrow we will highlight the Monday Night match up between NFC East rivals Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles which is sure to be a show.
