With the NFL season finally upon us let’s take one final look at the NFL win totals most likely to make you money, as well as some lines to avoid.
I’ll be ranking these in order from my most confident best bets on down.
Seattle Seahawks – O/U 9.5
I’m not sure if Vegas knows something that the rest of us don’t (they usually do) but I am confidently on the over here.
You’re getting a very favorable payout at +110.
The Seahawks and Russel Wilson simply win games. Only once in Wilson’s tenure as the Hawks QB have they ever not had double digit wins. This year will not be the second.
They have never finished worse than 2nd place in the NFC West, and have made the playoffs every year except 2017, which of course is also the only year with less than 10 wins (9-7).
The Hawks offense is set up to be better this year than in years past. Josh Gordon returned to the team, and may play a full 16 game slate for the first time in his career.
D.K. Metcalf is set to take a step forward as well and should develop as a wide receiver and become more than just a deep target who can out jump DB’s.
The defense is no longer the legion of boom, but hasn’t been for quite some time. With the 49ers remaining at the same level, or maybe even taking a slight step back, the Hawks are in a great position, and are gunning to win the division for the first time since 2016.
This line is just simply too low, as I think the Seattle will go 10-6 at a bare minimum.
Take advantage of this favorable line, and lock in the Seahawks over as one of your biggest and most confident bets.
- Green Bay Packers – O/U 8.5
This over is an extremely easy bet for me to make, even having to lay the -137 juice.
Even if you believed the Packers over achieved last year, which many do, they would have to lose an additional 6 games this year in order for you to lose the bet.
I cannot think of a single team in NFL history who went 13-3 and made it to the NFC Championship and then fell to a .500 squad the next year without any significant changes.
Matt LaFleur has proven he can hold his own as a head coach, and Aaron Rodgers has more reason than ever to be motivated and prove he’s got many years left in the tank.
This just very simply is not a team who is going to go 8-8.
They also have a very favorable back end of the schedule, playing the Jags, Colts, Lions, Panthers and Bears twice down the stretch. This means they will likely only need to go 4-4 through the first 8 weeks in order for you to cash the bet.
The Packers will likely regress. I do not see another 13-3 or even 12-4 type season on the horizon. However, I certainly do not see an 8-8 record in their future either.
During the draft, Packers fans everywhere were clamoring for additional help on the offensive side of the ball. Though they did not receive it, the weapons that Rodgers and the Packers managed to go 13-3 with last year are all a year more experienced, and a year more knowledgeable and familiar with the playbook and offense as a whole.
Look for guys like Allen Lazard, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Jamaal Williams to step up and become big time players in this Packers offense on your way to cashing another over bet.
- New York Giants – O/U 6
We have reached our first under bet.
As you read this article, please, pull up the Giants schedule and tell me how they possibly come away with 6 wins, let alone 7.
This is a very safe under bet, and has the calming presence of a possible push if the Giants do over achieve by a game or two.
Even if you are generous, and give them the benefit of the doubt on games they could possibly win, you can still barley make it to 5 wins.
Even though it won’t happen, let’s say they manage to beat Washington twice, and steal a game from either the Cowboys or the Eagles. They now have three wins. Who are the other four teams they might beat?
The Bengals? Maybe.
The Browns? Maybe.
But certainly not the Steelers, 49ers, Rams, Bucs, Seahawks, Cardinals, or Ravens.
That is a brutal line up of opponents.
This team cannot and will not go 7-9. There just is no chance. In addition to that, you get another very favorable payout at -106 (has moved to -110 in many books but that should make no difference to you)
This team will take a step forward cohesively, and Joe Judge is an improvement over the last string of Giant head coaches, but they are relying on a young QB who will likely see a sophomore slump, and are not good enough to overcome their many weaknesses.
Lock in Giants u6.
- Dallas Cowboys – O/U 10.5
The Dallas Cowboys are my pick to get to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
They are working with the most talented roster they have had in years. Any number of offensive players will be able to beat you, as they have great talent at literally every position.
The defense is not as good as I would like it to be, but I honestly think it will not really matter.
You have Dak playing for himself and to prove he is worth the big contract. Zeke is coming into the season without a looming suspension, investigation, or controversy for what seems like the first time since his rookie year.
CeeDee Lamb should make an immediate impact alongside of two top tier receivers in Cooper and Gallup.
To top it off, you have a fresh minded, newly invigorated head Coach in Mike McCarthy, who happens to own a winning percentage topped by only three other active coaches. One of them being the greatest of all time Bill Belichick.
I love everything about this Dallas Cowboys team, including their schedule. The should have no problem inside of their own division and will likely beat up on their opponents outside of it.
The only really tough games the Cowboys play this season will likely be against the 49ers, Ravens, and Seahawks.
Say they win even one of those games, they have room to drop the ball on two other occasions, and will still cash this bet with a 2 game cushion.
Vegas knows this line is too low, but instead of moving it up to 10.5, they are just going to make you pay.
-150 is the most you’re going to have to lay with any of these bets, but I promise you, it is worth it.
- Buffalo Bills – O/U 8.5 or 9.5
I like the Bills a lot this season, and think they are likely to repeat as division champs.
Even though the Jets and dolphins are attempting to take steps in the right direction, they are nothing to worry about for the Bills.
This is still a two-team race, and this is the first year in the last 20 that there are true questions surrounding the Patriots.
The Bills, and their young stud QB, just keep getting better every year.
Allen’s numbers and accuracy has progressed each and every season under Sean McDermott, and he now has another lethal weapon in Stefon Diggs at his disposal.
They also drafted Zach Moss, a beefy goal line back which will help them be more efficient in the RedZone this year.
Their defense is also much better than it has been in recent years, and could likely be top-10 ranked in many categories come end of the season.
The guaranteed winner here is o8.5 (-159) but if you are really confident in this Buffalo squad, like I am, you can take the much more favorable o9.5 for a +130 payout.
If you’d rather play it safe, I support you, but the difference in payout is a very significant swing, and a chance I’m willing to take.
On a $100 bet, you would make an additional $68 dollars from the o9.5. All the Bill’s have to do is win one additional game.
- New Orleans Saints – O/U 10.5
I don’t have all that much to say about this one.
The Saints did not get any worse from last year when they finished 13-3.
I think Brees has more left in him, and he is working with the best WR in the NFL, which is a major bonus.
The Saints will make noise again this season, and with a line of 10.5 you get a couple game cushion.
I do not like this as much as some of the other bets, but if you want to put money on the Saints, make sure it’s on the over (-106)
- LA Chargers – O/U 7.5
This line is very low for what should be a much improved chargers team.
Many people are doubting them because they doubt Tyrod Taylor. I think that is very short sighted.
Even without Derwin James, their defense is a force to be reckoned with, and they have the ability to get after the QB with the best of them, and create turnovers at a high rate which will allow Taylor and the offense extra chances all season.
Austin Ekeler should take a step forward as the top RB as well.
They have a very favorable schedule. The back end may bet a bit of a struggle, but they could realistically have 5 wins through the first 9 weeks. They also have a perfectly times week 10 bye week. All they then have to do is find 3 wins on the back end of the schedule, which is very doable.
I think this team will be good enough that we may not see Justin Herbert all season.
Prepare to cash the over (-141)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – O/U 9.5
This is a team that many people are also doubting can come together and win. I don’t think that’s true.
Sure, the offense is going to look much different that a Jameis Winston offense, but I have learned not to bet against Tom Brady.
This defense is sneaky good as well.
They are playing in a very competitive division, and could be in trouble if they drop extra games inside of it, but I think 10-6 is well within reach for the new look Buccaneers
Bucs over (-125)
- Cincinnati Bengals – O/U 5.5
This bet comes more from my heart than it does my head, and I would not recommend putting much at stake with it, but I like the Bengals to go over.
Yes, they only one two games last year, but two players who were not on the field during year one of Zach Taylors offense were Joe Burrow and A.J Green.
Green may never return to what he once was, but we are still talking about a 20 something year old players who, not that long ago, was in the debate for best receiver in the NFL, and a top of round 1 fantasy pick.
With Tyler Boyd, John Ross, and 33rd overall draft pick Tee Higgins there as well, all the Bengals need green to do is be 75% of the player he used to be, and they should be able to find success. They have good running backs as well, I just think they will be hindered by an offensive line that is less than stellar. 6-10 is likely the ceiling for Burrow and the Bengals this year, but I do believe they can achieve that goal.
- Washington Football Team – O/U 5
I like this line for no other reason than it is low, but not low enough to avoid, and offers a push opportunity.
Washington has to be, and will be, better than last year. They are still miles away from being competitive even within their own division though.
They will likely be in games this year, supported by their defense, but the offense needs a few more drafts and a few more years.
Take the under (+118) without a second thought.
NFL Win Totals to Avoid
- New England Patriots – O/U 8.5
Bill has won less than 10 games just one time since taking over as head coach in 2000. Still too many questions, and have to compete with a tough schedule and a good Bills team. May pull off 9 games but I am not willing to risk it for a -150 payout.
- Miami Dolphins – O/U 6.5
The Dolphins are not a good football team by most any standards, but they did over achieve last year and now have something to play for since they already got their guy in Tua.
Teams tend to over look the Dolphins, who then in turn piece together a game and end up winning some that they shouldn’t.
Fitzpatrick will always give you 100% effort, and they do have talent on the offensive side of the ball at receiver, tight end, and running back.
I don’t have confidence they will win 7 games but I really don’t doubt it could happen either.
I’m avoiding the Dolphins all together.
- Philadelphia Eagles – O/U 9
This is a new look Eagles team who should be good if they can all stay healthy and work cohesively. That is a big ask in Philadelphia though.
There are also rumblings that Ertz feels unwanted and will be under utilized in the new offense.
Things could go south in Philly quickly if Wentz goes down at any point, or they could figure things out and impress everyone with a playoff run.
You just don’t know with these Eagles, and that is why I’m avoiding them all together.
However, there is an alt line of 10.5 which I am confidently on the under but would have to lay -278. Your money is better served elsewhere.
A few other NFL futures I like are as follows
Bills to win AFC East (+120)
Packers to win NFC North (+180)
Cowboys to win NFC East (-121) *I absolutely love this bet
Texans to win AFC South (+350) * Simply a value bet here
Falcons to make playoffs (+220) * Don’t forget there is an extra playoff spot available in each conference this year!