MLB Playoff Handicapping- 10/14 (Part 2)

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After one inning of play and Kyle Wright getting yanked after giving up six runs, The Los Angeles Dodgers are cruising with an 11-0 lead still in the first inning.   Now we will shift our attention to the late game between The Houston Astros and The Tampa Bay Rays.  The Astros are coming into this one with their backs up against a wall and be being down in the series 0-3.

The Astros have been he underdog in all three games of this series so far and that isn’t any different tonight as they are +120 on the money line and a slight sharp advantage on percentage totals.  Via Consensus right now they care catching 5% of the sharp money, which generally wouldn’t be a big deal but there are over 5,000 betting tickets on this game as of the time of this article and alone puts more of a microscope on this game.

Tonight we have a match up of ace pitchers in Glasnow and Greinke. Glasnow is 5-0 in his last five starts and relies on a 4 seam fastball that clocks in at round 98 mph and has nasty movement that plays tricks on the batters eye.  He is coming in with a prop strikeout over at 5.5 and juiced to -180, with a projection if  6.2 strikeouts via Sports Action.  Oddly enough the total on this game has been rising through out the day, opening at 8 runs and is now at 8.5 with the percentages on the over.

Zack Greinke is coming in on the other side of this match up where he was pulled in his last game after giving up 4 runs in 5 hits to the Oakland Athletics in 4.2 innings, he was bailed out on that game thanks to the Astros offense, Greinke has always been a head case going back to his days in Arizona, he is also 2-3 in his last 5 starts giving up five homers and 29 hits, with 22 strike outs.  His strikeout prop is coming in tonight a 4.5 and his projection at 5.57.

The Astros are batting .352 vs. Glasnow and have a .662 slugging percentage against the hard throwing right hander.  Houston is going to have to find some offense if they want to stay alive in this series where they have only put up 5 runs through three games.  Tonight their team total is sitting at 3.5 runs and their first half run line is sitting at around -125 to -130.  This conventionally is a good spot to take the underdog, but with the way Glasnow has been throwing…this play is dicey at best.

Ted Barrett is the home plate umpire for this game tonight where he has accumulated a 61% home ML record with a 58% under record, The weather shouldn’t be a factor in this game tonight as they have clear skies and light wind.  This is make or break time for The Astros and I expect this to pull out all stops in a effort to dig themselves out of the hole they have found for themselves.  I will roll with a team total on this one as I don’t trust Greinke and I will roll with Randy Arozarena and the high powered Rays offense to score more than 4.5 runs.

The Rays defense has been praised all season, but couple that with a clutch bull pen and explosive bats, these guys are hard to contain.   This current line up has put up 6 homers and 17 hits while carrying a .310 batting average on Greinke.  Best of Luck with whatever you decide to do,

The Play

Tampa Bay Rays Team Total over 4.5 -110

#wmf

 

 

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