Who is Jake Luton? This is the first question to ask when handicapping a lopsided match up between one of the best teams in the NFC and one of the worst teams in the AFC. Luton is a rookie quarterback out of Oregon State and was drafted in the 6th round. He had his first start last week at versus a respectable Houston Texan defense and almost pulled off the home upset underdog win.
Luton took over for the injured Gardner Minshew last week and had a 64.4% completion ratio on 38 attempts, he threw for 304 yards and had one touchdown against one interception. Things are going to be a little bit different this week as the Jags are leaving the comfort of their home and heading to the vaunted Lambeau Field to face off against Rodgers and Company who have the best ATS in the league and are 6-2 overall this year.
The rookie quarterback is coming into a very hostile environment where Rodgers for his career has an astonishing 64% winning percentage against the spread in 89 games played at Lambeau Field. This season Jacksonville is 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread on the road.
The spread action on this game has been steady at 13.5 points all week in favor of the home team and as of the time of this article has moved Green Bay to a 2 touchdown favorite. The thing that strikes me so far on this game is that The Jaguars are capturing 55% of the spread money and only 45% of the betting tickets via Sportsaction.com, this gives Jacksonville a 10% edge in the public/sharp ratio and is now moving on Green Bay. It has been like this all week though and Vegas is just now adjusting this number across the markets on Saturday night.
If you follow the first half team totals for Green Bay you know that they have scored on every first drive this year which makes their numbers discounted off the odds maker lines. Vegas has finally caught on to this trend and has set The Packers first quarter team total at 7.5 points rather than the 3.5 or 6.5 points that us as sports handicappers have been accustomed to all year.
Jacksonville is the worst team in the league this year in defensive efficiency with a dismal DVOA or defense adjusted value over average at 18.4%. We will compare that to The Packers offensive ranking who are 2nd in the league only behind The Kansas City Chiefs. I like Green Bay to score fast in the first half and cover their team total of 16.5 even with 85% of the betting money jamming the full game under of 47.5 points.
On paper this game looks like a blow out, but that is why they play the game and why we do what we do in a effort to figure out the best angles and projections in order to turn a profit based off where Vegas is setting the lines. Green Bay will be coming into this game with a few of their receivers either out or questionable, but their key play makers will still be there like Devante Adams who I project will get a lot of looks as he is Rodgers favorite target. His total receptions is set at 6.5 and is projected at over 7.5. I like this play as a prop bet and will take Adams at over 6.5 receptions for the game. The score first prop is set for Green Bay at -190 which should also be a quick cashing play.
Best of Luck with whatever you decide to do.
Green Bay 1st Half Team Total over 16.5
Green Bay Score First -190
D. Adams over 6.5 Receptions
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Jack Robinson is the Vice President of Operations at PicksCity.com and a contributing writer for Inside The Thunder at SI.com. He specializes in NBA, MLB and gambling analytics. He has been handicapping sports since 2014 and professionally since April of 2018.
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