Here is what I have gathered so far after handicapping these guys for a few weeks. They like to give up “free runs” and what I mean by giving up free runs is that they will commit a ton of errors on defense and have low strike out and high walk percentages. This is a big reason why these totals are inflated as opposed to your typical MLB lines which are usually set around 8.5 runs. Now, if you combine good contact hitters with pitchers that can’t throw strike outs then this is a recipe for disaster. This is a great thing for a guy like me that likes to play these overs anyway.
There are four teams in this stage of the matchups with the Ratuken Monkeys being the best as they are undefeated and are averaging around 9 runs per game and behind them it is pretty much a free for all with The Guardians having decent bats but still lack pitching besides their ace Henry Sosa.
Last night The Guardians offered up a pitcher who had a 7.40 era last year in 20 innings pitched. He showed it again last night by giving up 7 runs in the first and made this an easy first 5 innings over play. Before last night The Brothers had only put up 26 runs for the year but this goes to show you the value in the 1st half totals and the evident lack of pitching in this league.
Vegas still has to set these odds on the games where it will entice people to bet one way or the other, but like I have always said…numbers are numbers. They have to introduce “chance” into these games based off the players, the stats, and the records but once these lines are set they can’t move them out of the algorithm to where they have been set.
This is where a guy like me comes in and can differentiate where money is moving based off the numbers that Vegas has already set for the game. I will give you an example; Henry Sosa is the Guardians Ace and he is their guy and the leagues guy. The odds makers understand this and will make Fubon Guardians the favorite no matter what…even if they are playing The Monkeys. He is your Kershaw type equivalent for this league.
What the oddsmakers will do is try to set up trick lines on The Monkeys and what I mean by that is to set their team total at…lets say 4.5 and juice it to try an get action on the over or even the full game over. They could very well go over 4.5 but I guarantee you it won’t happen in the first 5 innings as long as a Sosa type pitcher is starting, but don’t worry there aren’t many of them in this league. Situations as stated above is where I try to find the breaks in the Vegas lines, I try to see things that others can’t.
In the CPBL a pitcher with the equivalent of a 3.5 run era is about like a pitcher in the MLB with a 2.5 run era. That is average right? But, the numbers are inflated cause of the errors and walks committed in a game.
A good rule to remember is errors create runs and this is abundant in the CPBL, this is because a lot of these pitchers throw right into the strike zone or are junk ball throwers and the batters are getting hard contact, which makes playing the ball tough for the defenders. The phrase “hitting the ball on a rope” comes to mind if any of you grew up playing or watching baseball, haha.
I’m running a 75% winning percentage through 12 plays so far. It would be higher if the game a few nights ago didn’t get rained out where we were pushing the first 5 over through 3 innings played. I will do some more articles on the CPBL in the future, and I’m also keeping an eye on the Korean League as well. They are in pre season right now and I will handicap them when the time comes.
I hope you guys are being safe out there and we will have our real sports back here in the near future, until then we have to work with what we got.
Adapt and survive.
Jack Robinson is the Senior Content Writer at PicksCity.com and Contributing Writer for Inside The Thunder at SI.com who carries a tracked record on all sports and all plays from April of 2018 at 972-788-55 a 55.2% winning percentage via sportsaction.com