In what will be one of the biggest money games of the day, we have a rematch in OKC where the LA Clippers travel back to face a Thunder team that just taken it’s worst loss in franchise history Sunday in Milwaukee.
The last time the Clippers came to The Peak in December, they blew a 19 point lead and pissed off a lot of LA backers in the process. Will we get a replay of what happened last time or will the revenge factor come into play? Let’s dive in and figure it out. In the last meeting LA came in as the underdog without Leonard in the lineup. Tonight he is playing on unrestricted minutes and will be a force to deal with, he comes in tonight projected at 8.6 rebounds, 25.5 points, and 4.9 assists. Whoever gets to guard this man will have their hands full, Dort/Diallo/SGA whoever it may be. With that being said, I like points to be put up in this game. Total opened at 226 and has been rising throughout the day up to 227.5 and moving to 228 in some markets. This is moving correctly however, as the over is capturing over 75% of the money and almost as many betting tickets.
Now moving on to the good stuff, the spread. This line opened on the Clip Show as a 2.5 favorite and since then the line has been doing nothing but going up. It has just moved to 4.5 in most markets, thus leaving little confidence for OKC to win or even cover the spread on this game as everyone is very heavy on LAC. They have been over 90% on the money since this line opened in Vegas last night. With over 2500 bets now on this game I don’t see any big moves coming back on OKC unless someone is ruled out, which I don’t see happening at this point. There is a very good reason for these percentages as the last thing everyone saw out of them was getting beat down at the hands of the Bucks. The Clippers on the other hand are hot with a resurgent Kawhi Leonard coming off the DL and averaging 25 points per game helping LAC to a 4-0 run, with their last loss coming against Sacramento in the middle of February, but they are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games where they have been at least a 7 point favorite in each of those games. OKC is still the best covering team in the NBA and carrying a 38-22 record against the spread. They are still 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games along with dropping their last 3 games verses the spread.
What I really find interesting on this game is the moneyline. OKC opened as a +130 underdog since then they have increased $40 up to +170. No one is giving OKC any chance to win this game in which everyone obviously thinks it is a revenge game and Thunder coming off that bad loss. It is so bad, that OKC is pulling just 1% of the ML…yes you read that right, just ONE PERCENT. You would think even some of these contrarian guys would take a shot on the boys in blue and orange, apparently not today. I have been monitoring this game since early this morning ad these number have not moved.
I’m really surprised a major network didn’t pick this game up because it will most likely be the best game of the night and with all these percentages being so heavy on LAC there will definitely be something that occurs in this game that will have a dramatic impact on the Vegas lines. Two of three referee’s in this match up are hovering in the 60% range with the home team against the spread. The other Nick Buchert has a 42.9% win rate. None of these referees have over 53% under rate, which means they are over refs.
I feel like this game has Vegas written all over it, and this is one that I will continue to monitor right up until the tip off to make sure nothing goofy happens within the lines. If I had to lean I would lean on the Vegas side in this one, I personally would never take a team like the Clippers that are this heavy on both the tickets and the money. Combine that with this being the most bet on NBA game of the day and you get yourself a recipe for disaster.
Best of luck which ever way you go. #wmf