The Philosophy of Sports Handicapping Volume 1

I get asked a lot who I think will win a game and more often than not I tell them I’m not sure, but I’m a sports handicapper right? Well, picking a winner and capping a game are about as different as night and day when it comes to terms of being able to lay a wager on a winning line. The difference between what I do and what the casual bettor does is that I have the ability to decipher to Vegas lines in order to find an edge that will benefit myself as well as those that follow these plays. This ability has taken years, money, discipline, and grinding everyday to be able to find the cracks in the algorithms in order to perfect a craft. I’m always trying to learn new things everyday to hone in the skills for this. There are guys that have betting systems and solely ride the numbers blindly. That is fine, I have found out that their is no correct way to do this and everyone has their own style, I’m lucky enough to have learned this skill from a handful of phenomenal cappers where we basically blended our own styles together to figure out how to win consistently.

I honestly feel like you have to have a level of mental perception about what the odds makers are doing in contrast to what the public is trying to do as well. You see this a lot in NBA match ups with the public heavy on one side and the sharps on the other…I call it situational forecasting for lack of a better term, these games are geared with the lines to trick the public on going to one side or the other which in turn for a guy like me loves to see. I run 60% all time in NBA for a reason and it’s having this ability, being able to tune into the intangibles and use the power of probability to my advantage. Does it work all the time? Of course not, but If I can figure out a way to push the odds into our favor as much as possible then I feel like I’m doing the best I can to help those around me and that follow my plays beat Vegas and their bookies.

Gambling is an addiction, no other way to get around it but if I can help people feed their addiction in a positive way I feel like I’m doing the right thing. I would never give anyone advice if I myself haven’t experienced it, I started doing this from the very bottom and have worked myself to this point. Discipline is very important, without this you are susceptible to falling into terms like “chasing” or “going on tilt”.

This is what Vegas has geared the game to make you do, the trick is being aware of it when it is happening. Gambling has been around since the dawn of time and it will be around long after you or I leave this Earth. This is a craft that I have chosen to try and master and try to help and educate as many people as I can along the way. Thanks for reading.

P.S. I will do a game article tomorrow as we have a stronger NBA card on tap.

#wmf

The Way Too Early Super Bowl LIV Write up

After the radio show ended this morning I only talked about a few things I wanted to about Super Bowl LIV…so, I will cover that and the rest here. Read more

Lakers vs 76ers

I’m looking at the NBA feature game on ABC tonight. This is more or less a situational handicap with line opening on the road team at -4.5. The market has slammed Lakers on both the ticket and the money side but the line went into reverse from 4.5 to 4 which has created a money move on Sixers up to 46% and moved the back to 4.5 at the time of this article. I like the home dog in this spot with the public heavy on the Lakers. Philly is carrying a 20-2 SU home record this year they are also +5.77 on the moneyline at home. Lakers obviously not a slouch either going 8-2 SU L10 and a 20-4 road record SU. The ref matchup here is interesting as well with their home ATS capping out at 54.4% This is a perception play on The Sixers, I’m buying off the hook and playing them +5 and taking a shot at the ML. Best of luck whichever way you go. #wmf