Cole Caufield was drafted 15th overall in 2019 by the Montreal Canadiens. After spending two years with the Wisconsin Badgers, Caufield had his coming out party during the Canadiens unlikely run to the Stanley Cup Finals last NHL season.
As the all time leading scorer for the U.S Junior National team, it was no surprise Caufield was able to jump in the mix, and heavily impact the playoffs with 12 points in 20 games. His success is bound to continue this season, but are the books slightly over estimating the young forward’s powers?
Cole Caufield Hockey History
As a native of Stevens Point, Wisconsin, my college hometown and current place of residence, I cannot bring myself to actually place a bet against Caufield. Though I may advise you to. Thankfully there are two props available, one of which I can confidently take the over.
All Caufield does is generate points. Regardless of the level of hockey at which he is playing, he finds himself on the score sheet nearly each and every night. These ridiculous, record setting numbers include 137 points across two years of high school, 88 total points across two years of college and 100 points in a single season for the U.S. National U18 team.
For an in depth breakdown of Caufield’s career path and point totals dating back to age 13, click HERE.
Cole Caufield Player Prop Analysis
What you’ll notice as you look through Caufield’s Elite Prospects page using the link above, is a truly unbelievable amount of goals scored. No matter how much talent is around him, Caufield rises to the top and makes the most of his opportunities with the puck on his stick. He is a goal scorer in the purest form, and a playmaker on both ends of the ice.
Despite all of that being extremely true, I still cannot pull the trigger on the over 26.5 total goals this season.
There are a few factors that are being overshadowed by Caufield’s past and the recency bias we carry from his 12 points in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
One thing to consider about the playoffs is that you see the same teams multiple games in a row. You become familiar with matchups, weak spots and goaltenders’ style and tendencies and can expose them immediately the next game. The regular season schedule does not allow for those luxuries, as this year especially, Caufield will be going against different defenders, goaltenders, and defensive strategies every night.
The other big consideration can be seen in breaking down his 12 playoff points. He had twice as many assists (8) as he did goals (4), and I think that trend is likely to continue through his first full NHL season. He will be playing with some extremely good linemates, and the Canadiens have a multitude of guys who can put the puck in net at a high rate including Tyler Toffoli and Nick Suzuki, among others.
Knowing what we know about Caufield, he could just continue doing what he’s always done and absolutely obliterate his goal total with months left to go in the season. I just feel much more comfortable being able to take advantage of all his assists as well, which is why I really like the over his season point total of 47.5.
There is no reason to believe Caufield won’t have at least as many assists as he will goals. In fact, it should be pretty easy for him to have more. So if you believe he can get anywhere near his goal total, you should be running to get this bet placed before 7:00 p.m. est. Tuesday night.
The NHL is obviously a different animal, but Cole Caufield has only gone under that point total one time since 2014-15. I’ll be backing him to do it again.
Cole Caufield Player Prop Picks
Best Bet: Regular Season Total Points – Over 47.5 (-114)
Leans: Regular Season Total Goals: Under 26.5 (-114)
